Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Bernard Madoff Investment Securities Holdings
SEC Filing on Holdings
MSNBC's Video On Madoff
Madoff received a wave of redemption notices in recent months from investors looking to preserve cash. Authorities say investors sought to pull out some $7 billion from the fund — money Madoff apparently did not have. In the end, most Ponzi schemes collapse when too many investors seek to pull their money out at the same time, and the operator doesn’t have the cash on hand.
MSNBC's Video On Madoff
Madoff received a wave of redemption notices in recent months from investors looking to preserve cash. Authorities say investors sought to pull out some $7 billion from the fund — money Madoff apparently did not have. In the end, most Ponzi schemes collapse when too many investors seek to pull their money out at the same time, and the operator doesn’t have the cash on hand.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Thursday, December 18, 2008
China To Increase Iron Ore Imports
China is forecast to increase iron ore imports by 40m tonnes in 2009.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Lots of Activity On DRYS in Pre-Market and AH Trading - The Trend Is Up
Definitely avoid getting caught short on this stock or you could find yourself getting cut in half in a matter of days. (Click on the chart) Shorts need to cover immediately and go long to avoid further losses. DRYS will probably GAP UP on the opening again tomorrow, then continue its run up another 10% - 20%.
Dry Ships Index Up +8.2% And Climbing
Click: Shippers continue to run as the Dry Ships Index rises again today. Take some profits on some of your GNK and roll it into DRYS, which is trading at a $2.00 - $3.00 discount to GNK at this time. DRYS should be trading at $13 - $14 soon, especially since GNK is almost $15 today.
DRYS Stock Trading in a Channel with tomorrow looking like we could break through $12.00 - $12.50 if the BDI continues to spike as it has been doing.
DRYS Stock Trading in a Channel with tomorrow looking like we could break through $12.00 - $12.50 if the BDI continues to spike as it has been doing.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Friday, December 12, 2008
Japan Governmant Expands Stimulus Package By 6 Times To $131 Billion; Tokyo Announces Economic Measures Worth $295 Billion; Europe Backs $264 Billion
Japan's government said it would expand the size of funds set aside to recapitalise banks to 12 trillion yen ($131.1 billion) from 2 trillion yen and also announced a 1 trillion yen package to secure jobs. It was not clear how much of the money was new.
Tokyo has already announced a package of economic measures worth 27 trillion yen ($295 billion), which included 5 trillion yen in new spending and featured payouts to families, tax breaks on mortgages and relief for small firms.
"We are working at a very high speed. The size of the economic measures will be worked out until the last minute," Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa told a news conference just before the new measures were unveiled.
European Union leaders backed a 200 billion euro ($264 billion) economic stimulus pact, said British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
Tokyo has already announced a package of economic measures worth 27 trillion yen ($295 billion), which included 5 trillion yen in new spending and featured payouts to families, tax breaks on mortgages and relief for small firms.
"We are working at a very high speed. The size of the economic measures will be worked out until the last minute," Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa told a news conference just before the new measures were unveiled.
European Union leaders backed a 200 billion euro ($264 billion) economic stimulus pact, said British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +53 to 764
The BDI is turning up again as it advances 53 points today and bounces off its low point that it hit last week.We think that this index may have bottomed last week and see the start of a shipping turnaround in process. Expect the shipping stocks to continue their rally despite the slight pullback yesterday. This looks a replay from December 2005 through October 2007. This is where you accumulate stock (at these cheap levels) before everyone figures it out. Any shares under the $10 - $12 level is an absolute steal.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
The BDI Shipping Index Has Finally Turned Up
See the chart here. Now, are we overbought or is shipping a ground floor opportunity to get in? Looks like $3,000 to $230,000 is the target somewhere in 2009! Buy and Hold Through January - April when China imports the most ore for the year. Here are a few good reasons to Buy and Hold:
1) Banking is getting back online.
2) Investors are boarding shipping companies now.
3) Chinese steel makers wanted the new annual pricing for ore to start from January 1, instead of from April to get the shippers moving sooner. China’s iron ore stockpiles at its major ports and warehouses had exceeded a record 100-million tons.
1) Banking is getting back online.
2) Investors are boarding shipping companies now.
3) Chinese steel makers wanted the new annual pricing for ore to start from January 1, instead of from April to get the shippers moving sooner. China’s iron ore stockpiles at its major ports and warehouses had exceeded a record 100-million tons.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Do Not Short Stocks Into The Christmas Rally
Shorting stocks into a Christmas rally can be detrimental to your portfolio as many traders and investors experienced going into Thanksgiving this year. Hold your positions.
A Key Element To The Run In Shipping Stocks
Once Wall Street figures this out, you should see the shipping stocks continue to climb. Please read this article.
More Shipping News In The WSJ
The Wall Street Journal News reports: Investors are once again doubling down on the shipping stocks, pursuing those companies after a year-long selloff.
Also - see our notes from 12/04/2008:
1) Here is some news worth reading again
2) Rumors of buyout circulating on DryShips
3) There is a Shipping Conference going on in NY this week
4) The UDW Primelead spin-off is still in the works
5) China to order Billions in goods that should get shippers moving again
6) News of a Multi-Billion China railway to speed up the economy
7) Bank credit is finally thawing, allowing goods to be shipped again worldwide
8) Australian coal exports pick up as Newcastle reports an almost 60% increase of coal shipments in the last week of November and more then 40 ships waiting in line to load
9) There are over 6,300,000 shares short on this stock with a tight float
10) DRYS stock could easily "Triple" from here with all the news coming in at once: Easing of credit, China material orders, Coal exports, short covering, and the UDW spinoff
Also - see our notes from 12/04/2008:
1) Here is some news worth reading again2) Rumors of buyout circulating on DryShips
3) There is a Shipping Conference going on in NY this week
4) The UDW Primelead spin-off is still in the works
5) China to order Billions in goods that should get shippers moving again
6) News of a Multi-Billion China railway to speed up the economy
7) Bank credit is finally thawing, allowing goods to be shipped again worldwide
8) Australian coal exports pick up as Newcastle reports an almost 60% increase of coal shipments in the last week of November and more then 40 ships waiting in line to load
9) There are over 6,300,000 shares short on this stock with a tight float
10) DRYS stock could easily "Triple" from here with all the news coming in at once: Easing of credit, China material orders, Coal exports, short covering, and the UDW spinoff
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Shipping Stocks Are Currently Leading The Way
Options story about DRYS - DryShips.
DRYS is recently up $3.11 to $10.29. DRYS owns and operates a fleet of drybulk carriers. DRYS January 12.5 calls have traded 608 times on transaction volume of 9,686 contracts, its open interest of 3,380 contracts. DRYS December 10 straddle is priced at $3.60, DRYS January 10 straddle is priced at $5.90 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Also - Shippers have been mentioned positively at Credit Suisse who we suspected were big buyers in DRYS and GNK last week. Credit Suisse said they are hearing of a pick-up in metals activity in Asia, which is a positive on DRYS, TBSI, DSX, and GNK.
DRYS is recently up $3.11 to $10.29. DRYS owns and operates a fleet of drybulk carriers. DRYS January 12.5 calls have traded 608 times on transaction volume of 9,686 contracts, its open interest of 3,380 contracts. DRYS December 10 straddle is priced at $3.60, DRYS January 10 straddle is priced at $5.90 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Also - Shippers have been mentioned positively at Credit Suisse who we suspected were big buyers in DRYS and GNK last week. Credit Suisse said they are hearing of a pick-up in metals activity in Asia, which is a positive on DRYS, TBSI, DSX, and GNK.
Friday, December 05, 2008
YRCW Shorts Were Crushed This Week
We certainly missed this one when it was trading at a mere $1.50 the other day. Our sources show that the hedge funds shorted 17,000,000 shares of this stock and were forced to cover! This is a transportation stock and was due to come back to a "real" valuation multiple, and not a BK multiple. People overreacted and over sold this stock, just like many others have been oversold when the HF's hammered the bids on good quality stocks because their investors just plain "wanted out" at any cost a few weeks ago. What a shame! Many good stocks got massacred! We follow a few here. I think the shipping sector is going to bounce next once they get the banks online with their letters of credit to be able to support all the new China orders recently! Barclay's Bank will probably lead the way like Lehman did from what we are hearing. Get ready for an explosion when this happens because most have prepared for the worst, and well, we just don't see it. People still need to eat and the world economies need supplies and materials unless we're missing something here....consumption will still happen on a Global basis. Stay tuned.
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Newcastle Is Reporting That There Are 41 Ships Waiting to Load Coal
On December 1, they reported that there are 41 vessels off the port waiting to load 3,383,662 tonnes of coal. There are three vessels in the port loading 326,000 tonnes. Click to see the report
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Breaking News: China Stimulus Spelled Out
The government Wednesday unveiled a raft of measures to encourage lending by financial institutions to infrastructure projects, small businesses and potential home and car buyers. Click Here To Read The News
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Clinton And China News
HONG KONG -- At the opening of the two-day Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) meeting in Hong Kong, former US president Bill Clinton Tuesday urged China to contribute more to fight the global financial crisis, climate change and terrorism. Click For News
More News From China
Du Ying, vice-minister of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said on that this year's grain yield is on course for a record high of 525 million tons. Click For The Full Story
Monday, December 01, 2008
Great News From China
BHP Pops $4.00 in AH on the China news!
Hellenic Shipping News reports this weekend that all hopes for a turnaround are on China. Well, late today China Yunnan province announced that is is going to buy $3 Billion in metals according to Reuters news service. Click for News.
Hellenic Shipping News reports this weekend that all hopes for a turnaround are on China. Well, late today China Yunnan province announced that is is going to buy $3 Billion in metals according to Reuters news service. Click for News.
Bernanke: Lower interest rates are "feasible"
Expect rates to go lower and then stay low for quite some time. Bernanke says Fed has options as rates near "Zero". Also - The market sells off on the NBER news that we already new last year and should be built into the market already!
A Real and Free Trading Lesson
Here's the Lesson:
People here who are bullish need to look up the word Intrinsic Value. OK, here you go... The actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This value may or may not be the same as the current market value. Value investors use a variety of analytical techniques in order to estimate the intrinsic value of securities in hopes of finding investments where the true value of the investment exceeds its current market value.
What happened around the week of November 17, 2008?
When the forced selling came in it didn't matter what the Intrinsic Value was for the stock. The mutual funds, margin call sell outs, and Hedge Fund's were forced to sell at "whatever" the price was. I'd call it CAPITULATION. The Key words "FORCED" and "CAPITULATION". Your opportunity to BUY! View it like a forced sell on your neighbors house if it had to be sold in one or two days. You are not going to get Top Dollar by any means but it will sell for a deep deep discount, right?
OK, then what happens?
Well, as a former WS trader that has seen this many times, the "traders" / "Market Makers" drop the Bid Price and keep dropping it to bring in the shares at the best price. If there was massive selling say at $15, the MM's dropped to $14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7 ,6 ,5 ,4....you see?
It doesn't mean that the price is the True Value. Its just where the MM's place the Bids until a buyer steps in who has $$$$ can take some heat. No one wanted to take any more heat as bids faded daily. People were scared. Again a buying opportunity to "leg" in as the stock kept falling....averaging in along the way.
So you might ask...What happens when the market ticks up and gets stronger? Well, as in the case of DryShips - DRYS, the MM's dont want to keep the Ask price or offer at $4.00 so they back away just like the reverse of the drop. The MM's move from $4 to $5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, then up to $20? $30? They keep moving up or lose their high cost shares at $5.00, 6, 7?? No way.
Anyways, the hard drops were done to get your shares too. This is how GS and Cantor make $100's of million in trading stocks every year! Get it? Yeah, its real. It happens all the time! Called, backing and filling....
My prediction based on past trading experience of over 25 years:
Look for a fierce bounce in the coming weeks as the smart money figures out that many stocks are trading well below their Intrinsic Values and we should get a bump from the worldwide stimulus packages too. Also, expect other Hedge Funds like George Soros and Paul Tudor to stop the liquidations at these absurd prices. George's traders were massively selling and he fired several of them. Rightly so. Go read about these HF's today.
OK, Have a good day. I hope that this was helpful? Be good.
People here who are bullish need to look up the word Intrinsic Value. OK, here you go... The actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This value may or may not be the same as the current market value. Value investors use a variety of analytical techniques in order to estimate the intrinsic value of securities in hopes of finding investments where the true value of the investment exceeds its current market value.
What happened around the week of November 17, 2008?
When the forced selling came in it didn't matter what the Intrinsic Value was for the stock. The mutual funds, margin call sell outs, and Hedge Fund's were forced to sell at "whatever" the price was. I'd call it CAPITULATION. The Key words "FORCED" and "CAPITULATION". Your opportunity to BUY! View it like a forced sell on your neighbors house if it had to be sold in one or two days. You are not going to get Top Dollar by any means but it will sell for a deep deep discount, right?
OK, then what happens?
Well, as a former WS trader that has seen this many times, the "traders" / "Market Makers" drop the Bid Price and keep dropping it to bring in the shares at the best price. If there was massive selling say at $15, the MM's dropped to $14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7 ,6 ,5 ,4....you see?
It doesn't mean that the price is the True Value. Its just where the MM's place the Bids until a buyer steps in who has $$$$ can take some heat. No one wanted to take any more heat as bids faded daily. People were scared. Again a buying opportunity to "leg" in as the stock kept falling....averaging in along the way.
So you might ask...What happens when the market ticks up and gets stronger? Well, as in the case of DryShips - DRYS, the MM's dont want to keep the Ask price or offer at $4.00 so they back away just like the reverse of the drop. The MM's move from $4 to $5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, then up to $20? $30? They keep moving up or lose their high cost shares at $5.00, 6, 7?? No way.
Anyways, the hard drops were done to get your shares too. This is how GS and Cantor make $100's of million in trading stocks every year! Get it? Yeah, its real. It happens all the time! Called, backing and filling....
My prediction based on past trading experience of over 25 years:
Look for a fierce bounce in the coming weeks as the smart money figures out that many stocks are trading well below their Intrinsic Values and we should get a bump from the worldwide stimulus packages too. Also, expect other Hedge Funds like George Soros and Paul Tudor to stop the liquidations at these absurd prices. George's traders were massively selling and he fired several of them. Rightly so. Go read about these HF's today.
OK, Have a good day. I hope that this was helpful? Be good.
DRYS - DryShips: Buy On Any Weakness
Look for any dips as a way to Buy shares in DRYS. This stock is completely undervalued. 60% of their ships have locked in high day rates for an average of 5 years. One fund has been a seller and probably sold whatever they had left: Wellington Fund. I guess its better to take them out at $4.40 than $5.50? The buyers have been UBS, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and others. This is at least a $30 stock folks. Company presentation October 6, 2008.
Friday, November 28, 2008
((((((((((((((((( OK, I'm Back )))))))))))))))))))
I think we have probably seen the bottom on the Dow around 11/21/2008 and we probably have another 1,000 points on the Dow to run still. Shorts are running to cover almost everywhere we look, and rightly so. The ST capitulation, margin sell-outs, forced brokerage sell-outs and HF forced sales from scared investors seem to be behind us. I love the recent news about George Soros and his HF's.
MY FAVORITE PICK RIGHT NOW IS: DRYS
Completely undervalued. The Intrinsic Value or real stock value appears to be somewhere between $30 - $40 per share! The MACD and Full STO signals have turned up too! This was once a $115 stock and got caught up in Hedge Fund and panic selling! The forced selling looks like it started around $20.00 and the bids were no where to be found so it dropped to the $4.30 level. Completely absurd at this level stll! The company is lead by who many are calling the next Aristotle Onasis. His name is George Economou, an MIT graduate with several business degrees and he knows the shipping business better than anyone in the world!
1. Click Chart To Enlarge
2. DRYS Company Info: Click and read page 20.
3. CEO: Don't Dump DryShips
4. More DRYS Info.
5. The panic of the Global Financial Crisis is being overturned with renewed hope from the Billions and Billions in worldwide stimulus packages!
Lets evaluate where we go from here early next week. Keep an eye on my short list of positions. I have others and may add them later, time willing. Be good.
MY FAVORITE PICK RIGHT NOW IS: DRYS
Completely undervalued. The Intrinsic Value or real stock value appears to be somewhere between $30 - $40 per share! The MACD and Full STO signals have turned up too! This was once a $115 stock and got caught up in Hedge Fund and panic selling! The forced selling looks like it started around $20.00 and the bids were no where to be found so it dropped to the $4.30 level. Completely absurd at this level stll! The company is lead by who many are calling the next Aristotle Onasis. His name is George Economou, an MIT graduate with several business degrees and he knows the shipping business better than anyone in the world!
1. Click Chart To Enlarge
2. DRYS Company Info: Click and read page 20.
3. CEO: Don't Dump DryShips
4. More DRYS Info.
5. The panic of the Global Financial Crisis is being overturned with renewed hope from the Billions and Billions in worldwide stimulus packages!
Lets evaluate where we go from here early next week. Keep an eye on my short list of positions. I have others and may add them later, time willing. Be good.
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