Friday, December 12, 2008

Japan Governmant Expands Stimulus Package By 6 Times To $131 Billion; Tokyo Announces Economic Measures Worth $295 Billion; Europe Backs $264 Billion

Japan's government said it would expand the size of funds set aside to recapitalise banks to 12 trillion yen ($131.1 billion) from 2 trillion yen and also announced a 1 trillion yen package to secure jobs. It was not clear how much of the money was new.

Tokyo has already announced a package of economic measures worth 27 trillion yen ($295 billion), which included 5 trillion yen in new spending and featured payouts to families, tax breaks on mortgages and relief for small firms.

"We are working at a very high speed. The size of the economic measures will be worked out until the last minute," Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa told a news conference just before the new measures were unveiled.

European Union leaders backed a 200 billion euro ($264 billion) economic stimulus pact, said British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +53 to 764

The BDI is turning up again as it advances 53 points today and bounces off its low point that it hit last week.

We think that this index may have bottomed last week and see the start of a shipping turnaround in process. Expect the shipping stocks to continue their rally despite the slight pullback yesterday. This looks a replay from December 2005 through October 2007. This is where you accumulate stock (at these cheap levels) before everyone figures it out. Any shares under the $10 - $12 level is an absolute steal.

Thursday, December 11, 2008

The BDI Shipping Index Has Finally Turned Up

See the chart here. Now, are we overbought or is shipping a ground floor opportunity to get in? Looks like $3,000 to $230,000 is the target somewhere in 2009! Buy and Hold Through January - April when China imports the most ore for the year. Here are a few good reasons to Buy and Hold:
1) Banking is getting back online.
2) Investors are boarding shipping companies now.
3) Chinese steel makers wanted the new annual pricing for ore to start from January 1, instead of from April to get the shippers moving sooner. China’s iron ore stockpiles at its major ports and warehouses had exceeded a record 100-million tons.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Do Not Short Stocks Into The Christmas Rally

Shorting stocks into a Christmas rally can be detrimental to your portfolio as many traders and investors experienced going into Thanksgiving this year. Hold your positions.

A Key Element To The Run In Shipping Stocks

Once Wall Street figures this out, you should see the shipping stocks continue to climb. Please read this article.

More Shipping News In The WSJ

The Wall Street Journal News reports: Investors are once again doubling down on the shipping stocks, pursuing those companies after a year-long selloff.

Also - see our notes from 12/04/2008:

1) Here is some news worth reading again
2) Rumors of buyout circulating on DryShips
3) There is a Shipping Conference going on in NY this week
4) The UDW Primelead spin-off is still in the works
5) China to order Billions in goods that should get shippers moving again
6) News of a Multi-Billion China railway to speed up the economy
7) Bank credit is finally thawing, allowing goods to be shipped again worldwide
8) Australian coal exports pick up as Newcastle reports an almost 60% increase of coal shipments in the last week of November and more then 40 ships waiting in line to load
9) There are over 6,300,000 shares short on this stock with a tight float
10) DRYS stock could easily "Triple" from here with all the news coming in at once: Easing of credit, China material orders, Coal exports, short covering, and the UDW spinoff

Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Shipping Stocks Are Currently Leading The Way

Options story about DRYS - DryShips.

DRYS is recently up $3.11 to $10.29. DRYS owns and operates a fleet of drybulk carriers. DRYS January 12.5 calls have traded 608 times on transaction volume of 9,686 contracts, its open interest of 3,380 contracts. DRYS December 10 straddle is priced at $3.60, DRYS January 10 straddle is priced at $5.90 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Also - Shippers have been mentioned positively at Credit Suisse who we suspected were big buyers in DRYS and GNK last week. Credit Suisse said they are hearing of a pick-up in metals activity in Asia, which is a positive on DRYS, TBSI, DSX, and GNK.