Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Bear Stearns Puts Bailout at $1.6 Billion

Folks, we are getting caught a little in the cross currents of some poorly managed hedge funds losing billions. Some investors are capitulating and selling in a panic. Its not the time to sell. Our stocks are solid, so hang on.

If you are feeling Bearish - hedge your portfolio with QID.

Monday, June 25, 2007

Oakley and Titanium Metals Rumor Similarities

Oakley Rumor - (StreetInsider.com) 6/12/2007
Oakley Gets Bought Out - 6/21/2007
Oakley News on high options contracts prior to the buyout

Titanium Metals Rumor - (StreetInsider.com) 6/25/2007
Who and when??? It looks like its on!!!

TIE CALL OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, Jul 20, 2007
Strike . Symbol . Last . Chg . Bid . Ask . Volume . Open Interest
22.50 - TIEGX.X 10.10 0.00 9.40 9.80......... 2.................. 11
25.00 - TIEGE.X 8.10 + 0.60 7.00 7.30......... 5................ 152
30.00 - TIEGF.X 2.80 - 0.20 2.70 2.85......... 439 ...........2,494
35.00 - TIEGG.X 0.70 + 0.10 0.65 0.70....... 7,413......... 8,997
40.00 - TIEGH.X 0.20 + 0.05 0.20 0.25....... 3,178......... 4,807
45.00 - TIEGI.X 0.10 + 0.05 0.05 0.10........... 830......... 1,459
50.00 - TIXGJ.X 0.14 0.00 0.05 0.10............. 0............... 350
55.00 - TIXGK.X 0.15 0.00 N/A 0.05.............. 0................. 10
60.00 - TIXGL.X 0.10 0.00 N/A 0.05.............. 0................. 30

TIE Rumors Are Resurfacing Again Today

Click for info
We spoke to the company today and they declined to make any comments (ph. 972.450.4207). Our feeling is that several other companies that are not as attractive as TIE have been trading at new highs for the year, yet TIE hasn't done so. At least not yet. Their suspicious trading behavior and volatility only suggests to us that TIE is being eyed and gamed by a very big company who would like to addsome Titanium to their portfolio. Regardless of a takeover or not by the likes of rumors that are bouncing around about an acquisition by ATI, AL, or MT, we still feel that you are looking at a stock that will eventually trade at $45 - $50 per share. Banc America's analyst valued TIE several weeks ago at $41.

Sunday, June 24, 2007

A Recent Merrill Lynch Report Says That "Titanium Demand Is Almost Unfathomable"

World titanium sponge production doubled over the past five years to 124,000 metric tons in 2006, causing major producers Timet - TIE, Allegheny Technologies - ATI, Sumitomo Titanium, Toho Titanium and Russia's VSMPO-Avisma to announce sponge capacity expansions over the next decade.

Most market analyses say that's because of the growing demand for titanium metal in new-generation commercial and military aircraft, which use more of this light metal in conjunction with new families of composites. Boeing's new 737 Dreamliner uses 20,000 lbs of titanium in its airframe, while the new 787 will use 250,000 lbs; the Airbus A320 uses 25,000 lbs, but the new A380 will use 150,000 lbs. In military aircraft, the F-15 contains 50,000 lbs of titanium metal, while the F-22 uses 100,000 lbs and the Joint Strike Fighter contains 60,000 lbs.

A Merrill Lynch report says that "titanium demand is almost unfathomable" because of a "secular change towards composite aircraft manufacturing." The Merrill Lynch report says that "commercial aerospace is in the midst of a secular shift away from aluminum alloy use in airframes to that of composites. The shift towards composites goes hand in hand with the shift towards higher levels of titanium usage, as carbon-based composite airframe construction requires many of the properties that are unique to titanium." The analysis compares the transition to the earlier shift away from wood and canvas aircraft construction to aluminum.

Also, industrial demand for heat exchangers, pipes, tanks and pump components in the power, petrochemical and other process industries also is growing, particularly in China, according to a new Roskill Consulting Group report.

The report says the global market for titanium mill products exceeded 90,000 metric tons, with another 45,000 metric tons consumed in the form of the ferrotitanium alloy. World demand for mill products is forecast by Roskill to grow by 6.8% annually up to 2011, resulting in a market for 124,000 metric tons of mill products that year requiring some 230,000 metric tons of sponge.