Could Alcoa Be Next - See Recent Buyouts

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Takeover Plays In Metals

Alcoa tops Our List - Click

Alcoa News, JP Morgan Analyst Sees Buyout Talk as Credible

Boston, Mar 09, 2007 (MidnightTrader via COMTEX) -- Alcoa (AA) shares are higher late in the day after a JP Morgan analyst says he believes buyout talk is credible. He says BHP Billiton (BHP) and Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) could be possible bidders, as has been reported in the press. He says the stock has value of about $41 per share in buyout scenario. He also raised 2007 earnings estimate to $3.12 per share from $2.65 to reflect an increased outlook for aluminum prices.
Looks like its just a matter of time....possibly days??

BULLISH DELPHI NEWS

Delphi Corp. (DPHIQ, $2.60, $0.20, +8.79%) filed with the SEC to issue nearly $2 billion worth of common stock to shareholders as a key step toward funding its emergence from bankruptcy. According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the auto parts maker is offering current stockholders the right to buy 56,700,000 shares at $35 each, a $10 discount to the $45 deemed value. Although the offering has been filed with the SEC yesterday, it has not yet become effective. The question is...What is the discounted $10.00 value worth to current investors?

Today We Got The Bounce We Called Yesterday

We would expect that the market will continue the rally on Wednesday since the market stayed strong throughout the day. There is a lot of money on the sidelines trying to get in and the Shorts are covering as well which is further accelerating oversold stock prices. Stay tuned. Hold strong.

Alcoa Alert

Someone bought 500 July 35 Calls for $145 each for $72,500 (as seen on the tape today). Something must be in the works!

Mortgage News Has The Markets Spooked Again

Regardless - The demand for metals is still very strong. We should get a good Bounce in here soon. Hopefully this week!
Based On Fibonacci calculations...we would expect:
TIE to bounce to $37 - $38
AA to bounce to $34 - $35
ATI to bounce to $105 - $107

TIE News: Harold Simmons Buys Another 325,800 Shares

Harold Simmons Stock Filing - Reported On Edgar Yesterday

Filing states....The 6-3/4% series A convertible preferred stock, par value $0.01 per share ("Series A Preferred Stock"), of the issuer is convertible into shares of the issuer's common stock at any time at the rate of thirteen and one-third shares of the issuer's common stock for each share of the Series A Preferred Stock. Accordingly, on December 20, 2006, the reporting person converted 24,435 shares of Series A Preferred Stock into 325,800 shares of the issuer's common stock.

Alcoa Still A Huge Takeover Candidate

We would continue to keep accumulating Alcoa shares. One day we will wake up and the stock will trade between $43 - $45. A recent Barron's article points AA shares between $45 - $50! Regardless of any takeover the stock is being upgraded by Wall Street to the $42 level. The option trading today was literally insane...trading 6,000 MAR 32.50 calls, 11,000 MAR 35 calls, and almost 3,000 MAR 37.50 calls. Someone must know more than we do??? Time will tell!
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China's demand for copper remains strong
Robust appetite for metals points to unshaken industrial base, analysts say
Last Update: 6:23 PM ET Feb 28, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- So much for the Shanghai shudders. China is still likely to expand its consumption of copper and aluminum by at least 9% this year, said Citigroup Wednesday, a day after worries about a possible slowdown in the world's largest consumer of the metals triggered a global market rout -- with mining stocks hit particularly hard.
Analyst John Hill forecast Chinese copper demand will increase 9.2% this year, reversing a drop last year when Chinese copper users worked down domestic stockpiles.

Growth will likely speed up again in 2008, increasing 15%, as the country's demand for the conductive metal used in building pipes and wiring continues to expand, Hill predicted.

Likewise, China's aluminum consumption should expand by 15.5% this year, lighter than last year's growth rate, but still putting it firmly ahead of all other global users.
"We remain ardent adherents of the commodity supercycle," Hill wrote in a research report, referring to far-reaching, multi-year trends in the commodities market.
He added: "[we] do not believe that metals are artificially-inflated, supply-threatened, or cyclically 'cooked.'"

Still, he qualified that optimistic outlook by saying commodities are entering "a more mature phase" that places a premium on metals companies that show internal growth.

The Markets Will Soon Be Back On Track

Looks like Greenspan's comments over the weekend have spooked the market following a drop in the Chineese market. Testifying the day after the market's 416-point plunge, Bernanke told the House Budget Committee that the Fed was monitoring market developments but had seen nothing that would cause it to change its positive outlook for the economy.

Discussing market operations, he said, "They seem to be working well, normally."

In what might have been a reference to Greenspan, Bernanke said there did not appear to be just one cause for Tuesday's sell-off.

The possible causes suggested by analysts ranged from a record drop in China's Shanghai index, a surprisingly weak U.S. manufacturing report and weekend comments by Greenspan that raised the possibility of a U.S. recession by year's end.

Alcoa Upgraded Today - BUY

Credit Suisse said it also raised its price targets on aluminum companies Alcoa Inc.

The brokerage, in a research note, raised its price target on Alcoa to $42 from $35.

Block Trade of 462,900 Shares Of Alcoa (NYSE - AA) At The Close

This 462,900 shares of Alcoa - AA was a $16,368,144 trade! Something is definitely in the works!

Another Great Day On Our Picks Today!!!

More Huge Buying On AA At The Close

Something is in the works. Someone bought 87,300 shares of Alcoa - AA at $34.87 at the close = $3,044151 trade.
We hope to see $40 - $45 soon!

IGT's Reversal Is In Full Motion

Chart shows that the downward manipulation is about over.
IGT Chart
Next Target $47 - $48 Level and will be helped by an influx of business brought on by March Maddness, which makes this a good time to be in gaming stocks now.

From Barron's Online

BARRON'S
 By Tom Sullivan

If Australia's BHP Billiton or Britain's Rio Tinto hopes to buy Alcoa, the
American aluminum giant, as was rumored last week, they might have to pay a lot
more than $40 billion -- the price tag attached to the rumors. Sure, that tab
would represent a 33% premium to Alcoa's current $30 billion market value, but
it doesn't begin to reflect the turnaround afoot at the Dow industrials
component.

Barron's has been a fan of Pittsburgh-based Alcoa for some time (see "Alcoa's
Shiny Prospects," Aug. 8, 2005, and "Pricing Outlook Bright for Alcoa," Jan.
22, 2007). Yet the stock, for all its gyrations, did little from the date of
our first story, when it traded at 28, until this January. Indeed, Alcoa (AA)
has returned just 4%, dividends included, in the past five years, compared with
North American rival Alcan's (AL) total return of 65%.

Tuesday, Alcoa jumped as much as 10%, to 36.05, on takeover speculation, but
ended the week around 34.50, suggesting Wall Street sees no deal in the offing.
That would suit John Buckingham, manager of the Al Frank Fund (ticker: VALUX),
fine. "The ship is sailing the right course," he says, "but this is not the
time to be selling the company."

Buckingham, whose firm owns 162,000 Alcoa shares, understands why BHP and Rio
Tinto might be interested in a deal, especially at a bargain price. After all,
he says, "the ugly duckling is now a swan." But he views a bid of $55 a share,
or about $48 billion, as a much fairer price for Alcoa holders. Alcoa has
dismissed the takeover talk, while BHP and Rio Tinto didn't comment.

An acquisition of Alcoa would help both BHP (BHP), which calls itself the
world's largest diversified-resources company, and Rio Tinto, an international
mining concern, consolidate their positions in the aluminum industry. Aluminum
has underperformed other metals, in part because China produces 30% of the
world's supply. But the market has found support from commercial construction
and the transportation/aerospace sectors, CreditSights said in a recent report.

Investors in Alcoa, which makes Reynolds Wrap, Dura-Bright car wheels and
Spout Pouch beverage containers, as well as aluminum for industrial uses, can
expect to benefit. The company is likely to earn $3.03 a share this year,
compared with last year's $2.96. Alcoa trades for 11.4 times '07 estimates and
yields 2%.

In January, Alcoa announced plans to buy back up to 10% of its shares, in
part via debt. That prompted credit-rating agency Standard & Poor's to lower
its rating on Alcoa to triple-B-plus -- two notches below the rating the
company's debt received from rival Moody's Investors Service.

Yet the yield margins, or spreads, on Alcoa's bonds narrowed a bit in active
trading after the takeover reports surfaced; the company's 5.95% bonds due 2037
narrowed by three basis points (a basis point is 100th of a percentage point)
to 106 basis points over Treasuries with comparable maturities. That's despite
talk that the deal might be done as a leveraged buyout.

"It's a doable deal," says Eric Tutterow, managing director at Fitch Ratings,
implying Alcoa is not too large to be swallowed. "With a name like that . . .
there would be a lot of support in the high-yield and leveraged-loan markets."

A $40 billion acquisition would trump last year's record $39 billion buyout
of Arcelor by the Netherlands' Mittal Steel (MT). But Alcoa shareholders could
be counting even more millions before any deal is done. 

Time To Load Up On IGT

Chart shows that the downward manipulation is about over.
IGT Chart

Prudential Ups Alcoa Price Target To $41

Charts on A Few Recent Buyouts

Placer Sierra Bank Chart

Molecular Devices Chart

Broadwing Chart

Buyout May Still Be In The Works On Alcoa - AA

The tape (time and sales) shows someone Buying A lot of stock in here today!
We are hoping that the buyout of Alcoa - AA (if it happens like we think it will between $43 - $45) could look like the recent buyout of Molecular Devices.
See Chart on MDCC