Analyst at Deutsche Bank Says Titanium Is On Fire

'Titanium is on fire at the moment, and this is clearly a very attractive market,' said David Martin, an analyst at Deutsche Bank in New York.

Alcoa Withdraws Hostile Bid for Canadian Rival Alcan

Metal Stocks Are Consolidating

With all the consolidations in metal stocks:
TIE should fetch $45 - $50
ATI could catch a bid for $140 - $150 per share

Roll profits from AA into TIE and ATI now.

Rio Tinto Offers $38.1 Billion for Alcan

Featured Top Stock Idea: Titanium Metals - TIE

Here's what we know about TIE:

1. TIE has a 20 year agreement with Haynes Int'l who provides them with the ability to service long-term agreements requiring sheet and plate products; capicity of 4,500 metric tons of titanium mill rolling services and hold an option to increase the output capacity to 9,000 metric tons.
2. The Henderson, Nevada plant is nearing final completion
3. Alcan stated in Dec. 2006 that they would be interested in a Titanium company
4. TIE is a supplier to Airbus, Boeing, Rolls-Royce, GE Aircraft Engines, Pratt & Whitney, Wyman-Gordon, Snecma and others
5. Titanium demand is strong until 2010 - 2011 to meet defense spending, as well as Airbus and Boeing commercial airline demands
6. Titanium (Ti) is used for jet engines, blades, rings, landing gear, rings, wing supports, bulkheads, tail sections, and other aerospace components
7. TIE is the primary supplier to Rolls-Royce engines; the agreement starts on Jan 2007 and continues through through 2016
8. Rolls-Royce received over $15 Billion in orders at the recent Paris Air Show
9. Titanium continues to gain momentum in emerging markets and entered into a joint agreement with Chinese company XI'AN BAOTIMET. Production began in Jan 2007.
10. Approximately 146 metric tons of Ti will be purchased for each Airbus A380 manufactured
11. Boeing's 787 will require approximately 136 metric tons of Titanium
12. TIE is a "pure play" in Titanium and regarded as the largest US producer of titanium sponge.
13. In 2006, 57% commercial aerospace; 15% military sector; 17% chemical process, oil and gas, consumer and sporting goods products; 11% melted and mill products
14. Backlog on December 31, 2006 stood at $1.125 Billion compared to $870 Million in 2005
15. Dallas Billionaire, Harold Simmons and related family own approximately 51.9% of common shares
16. Institutions own about 36% of the stock
17. There are 6.1 million shares short or 32% of the float
18. Gross margin in 2006 increased 119% compared to 2005
19. Operating income increased 124% compared to 2005
20. Net sales increased 58% compared to 2005
21. Friend of Harold Simmons, T. Boone Pickens and BP Capital owns about 550,000 shares of TIE
22. Titanium Metals is on the forefront of several rumors and speculation that it may be the target of a takeover by a major conglomerate
23. A respected analyst at Bank of America places at value on the shares at $41
24. Ernst & Young Says Private Equity Firms Should Reconsider Mining Sectors

We Suggest Taking Some Profits On High Flying Stocks And Go Buy TIE And ATI At These Levels

German Metals Company May Be Targeting A US Titanium Company

Tuesday, The Times is claiming that unnamed sources close to the company say that ThyssenKrupp Titanium GmbH had appointed investment bank Deutsche Bank to work on a possible bid for an American titanium company.

Traders on Wall Street have assumed that the German industrial group (ThyssenKrupp Stainless AG and ThyssenKrupp Titanium GmbH) might make a bid for Allegheny Technologies (ATI) when it may in fact be eyeing Titanium Metals (TIE) located in Dallas, Texas.

ThyssenKrupp stock fell more than 2 percent on Tuesday and the company was forced to make a statement that they were not interested in acquiring Allegheny Technologies (ATI). TIE traded at $34.08 in after hours trading up 1.46%.

Click: How To Make Titanium

Renewed Takeover Chatter On Titanium Stocks

All eyes are on ATI and TIE.

Apple, BHP, AMX, EEM Hit New Highs

Forbes Magazine - Titanium Metals Looks Strong

Click: View Article #1
Click: View Article #2

Asian Stocks Rally - BHP Hits New High

Click: News

Metal Stocks Rise As The Dollar Weakens

More Insider Buying On Titanium Metals - TIE

Click: For Link
Click: Look for TIE To Bounce

Titanium Metals - TIE: Insider Buying Today

Click: Simmons buys $1.2 Million in stock today.

Bear Stearns Puts Bailout at $1.6 Billion

Folks, we are getting caught a little in the cross currents of some poorly managed hedge funds losing billions. Some investors are capitulating and selling in a panic. Its not the time to sell. Our stocks are solid, so hang on.

If you are feeling Bearish - hedge your portfolio with QID.

Oakley and Titanium Metals Rumor Similarities

Oakley Rumor - (StreetInsider.com) 6/12/2007
Oakley Gets Bought Out - 6/21/2007
Oakley News on high options contracts prior to the buyout

Titanium Metals Rumor - (StreetInsider.com) 6/25/2007
Who and when??? It looks like its on!!!

TIE CALL OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, Jul 20, 2007
Strike . Symbol . Last . Chg . Bid . Ask . Volume . Open Interest
22.50 - TIEGX.X 10.10 0.00 9.40 9.80......... 2.................. 11
25.00 - TIEGE.X 8.10 + 0.60 7.00 7.30......... 5................ 152
30.00 - TIEGF.X 2.80 - 0.20 2.70 2.85......... 439 ...........2,494
35.00 - TIEGG.X 0.70 + 0.10 0.65 0.70....... 7,413......... 8,997
40.00 - TIEGH.X 0.20 + 0.05 0.20 0.25....... 3,178......... 4,807
45.00 - TIEGI.X 0.10 + 0.05 0.05 0.10........... 830......... 1,459
50.00 - TIXGJ.X 0.14 0.00 0.05 0.10............. 0............... 350
55.00 - TIXGK.X 0.15 0.00 N/A 0.05.............. 0................. 10
60.00 - TIXGL.X 0.10 0.00 N/A 0.05.............. 0................. 30

TIE Rumors Are Resurfacing Again Today

Click for info
We spoke to the company today and they declined to make any comments (ph. 972.450.4207). Our feeling is that several other companies that are not as attractive as TIE have been trading at new highs for the year, yet TIE hasn't done so. At least not yet. Their suspicious trading behavior and volatility only suggests to us that TIE is being eyed and gamed by a very big company who would like to addsome Titanium to their portfolio. Regardless of a takeover or not by the likes of rumors that are bouncing around about an acquisition by ATI, AL, or MT, we still feel that you are looking at a stock that will eventually trade at $45 - $50 per share. Banc America's analyst valued TIE several weeks ago at $41.

A Recent Merrill Lynch Report Says That "Titanium Demand Is Almost Unfathomable"

World titanium sponge production doubled over the past five years to 124,000 metric tons in 2006, causing major producers Timet - TIE, Allegheny Technologies - ATI, Sumitomo Titanium, Toho Titanium and Russia's VSMPO-Avisma to announce sponge capacity expansions over the next decade. Most market analyses say that's because of the growing demand for titanium metal in new-generation commercial and military aircraft, which use more of this light metal in conjunction with new families of composites. Boeing's new 737 Dreamliner uses 20,000 lbs of titanium in its airframe, while the new 787 will use 250,000 lbs; the Airbus A320 uses 25,000 lbs, but the new A380 will use 150,000 lbs. In military aircraft, the F-15 contains 50,000 lbs of titanium metal, while the F-22 uses 100,000 lbs and the Joint Strike Fighter contains 60,000 lbs. A Merrill Lynch report says that "titanium demand is almost unfathomable" because of a "secular change towards composite aircraft manufacturing." The Merrill Lynch report says that "commercial aerospace is in the midst of a secular shift away from aluminum alloy use in airframes to that of composites. The shift towards composites goes hand in hand with the shift towards higher levels of titanium usage, as carbon-based composite airframe construction requires many of the properties that are unique to titanium." The analysis compares the transition to the earlier shift away from wood and canvas aircraft construction to aluminum. Also, industrial demand for heat exchangers, pipes, tanks and pump components in the power, petrochemical and other process industries also is growing, particularly in China, according to a new Roskill Consulting Group report. The report says the global market for titanium mill products exceeded 90,000 metric tons, with another 45,000 metric tons consumed in the form of the ferrotitanium alloy. World demand for mill products is forecast by Roskill to grow by 6.8% annually up to 2011, resulting in a market for 124,000 metric tons of mill products that year requiring some 230,000 metric tons of sponge.

Rolls Royce and Titanium Metals Connection

Click: Rolls Royce News
Click: TIE is the "primary supplier" to Rolls Royce engines
Click: Paris Air Show Info
Click: Rolls Royce Titanium Application
Info: V2500 Engine

1. Rolls-Royce develops and produces the V2500 in collaboration with MTU, Pratt & Whitney and the Japanese Aero Engines Corporation. A joint venture company, International Area Engines (IAE), in which Rolls-Royce holds a 32.5 percent stake, was founded in 1983 for marketing purposes. At present between 250 and 300 engines of this type are built every year. Globally, over 1,000 aircraft fitted with V2500 engines are in service with over 125 customers in 35 countries.
2. Rolls-Royce Deutschland has a workforce of around 2,500 divided between its two sites in Dahlewitz near Berlin and Oberursel near Frankfurt am Main. Rolls-Royce Deutschland is Germany’s only officially approved engine manufacturer licensed to develop, manufacture and maintain modern civil and military turbine engines. The BR700 family of engines, developed in Dahlewitz, are the first German civil jet engines to have international certification. As a centre of competence for twin-shaft engines within the Rolls-Royce Group, the Dahlewitz site is also responsible for the Tay, Spey and Dart engine series and now for the Rolls-Royce share of the V2500 engine as well.
3. The Oberursel plant manufactures components for Rolls-Royce engines, and maintains and overhauls small gas turbines for civil and military applications. Final assembly, maintenance and support for the RTM322 engines developed jointly with Rolls-Royce Turbomeca for the Bundeswehr’s new NH90 helicopters are carried out in Oberursel.
4. Rolls-Royce has a global workforce of around 36,000, of whom 22,000 are based in the United Kingdom. 40 per cent of its employees are located outside the UK, including almost 5,000 in continental Europe and 8,000 in North America. Rolls-Royce operates in four markets - civil aerospace, defence aerospace, marine and energy. The company is investing in technology and capability that can be exploited in each of these sectors to create a competitive range of products.

On March 15, 2007, the registrant entered into an agreement for the purchase and sale of titanium products (the "Supply Agreement") with Rolls-Royce, Plc ("Rolls-Royce") and certain of its affiliates.

The Supply Agreement was effective as of January 1, 2007 and, unless extended by the parties, will expire December 31, 2016. Under the Supply Agreement, among other things, the registrant will be the primary supplier of Rolls-Royce's titanium requirements for gas turbine engines.

Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Fire Sale Already Under Way

Two big hedge funds at Bear Stearns Cos. were close to being shut down last night as a rescue plan developed over several days fell apart in a drama that could have wide-ranging consequences for Wall Street and investors.

Merrill Lynch & Co., one of the hedge funds' lenders, said it would move to seize collateral -- much of it mortgage-backed debt -- from the two funds and sell it, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. At the same time, the funds' managers worked with a handful of other key lenders, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp., to pay off the funds' $9 billion in loans, according to a person familiar with the matter.

As of a few weeks ago, the two Bear Stearns hedge funds held more than $20 billion of investments, mostly in complex securities made up of bonds backed by subprime mortgages -- the relatively risky home loans made to borrowers with troubled credit histories.

Additionally: The last minute effort by Bear Stearns to rescue its High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund seems to have collapsed. Moments before midnight last night, the Wall Street Journal’s Kate Kelly reported that Merrill Lynch was going to push forward with its plan to sell at least $850 million of mortgage-related securities it seized from the hedge fund. This morning the New York Post's Roddy Boyd said that end had come for the fund. And now CNBC’s Charlie Gasparino is reporting that JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank have already begun selling collateral they seized from the hedge fund.

The securities were collateral assets for leverage the banks had extended to the debt-heavy fund. The fund has reportedly been battered by bad bets in collateral debt obligations and mortgage securities. The widely publicized trouble in the subprime sector helped make shorting subprime—which hedge funds did through a complex array of swaps and derivative products offered by investment banks—a popular and profitable bet late last year and earlier this year. But when banks reportedly began to ease credit terms on mortgage holders in a coordinated effort to stave off mass defaults and a meltdown in the market, many of these positions went bad for the fund.

[How leverage and bad directional betting crushed the fund, after the jump.]

We’re told that the Bear fund was purchasing credit default options that essentially amounted to a bet that the market would recover earlier this year, and ran into trouble when the ABX, an index for mortgage backed securities, took a nose dive earlier this year. It seems the fund then took the opposite position—so that it was short subprime—just as the market turned around. The fund took its position by buying and selling credit default options as well as credit products that aggregated those options—sometimes called CDO2s, we’re told.

These somewhat illiquid securities are priced according to complicated mathematical models worked out by guys who would be rocket-scientists if rocket-scientists made more money, and some observers wonder if anyone really has a good way of evaluating their worth.

Ironically, Bear Stearns itself has been accused by some hedge fund managers of manipulating the market in subprime mortgages to prevent defaults and prop up the ABX. The bank is one of the largest players in the market, and hedge funds have accused it of bailing out the mortgage market to avoid paying out on credit default swaps that it sold to the hedge funds.

What really seems to have got the Bear fund in trouble was the massive amount of leverage it was employing in it’s bets. Leverage ratios climbed as high as 10-to-1 and 15-to-1, according to Boyd in today’s New York Post. We’re told that one senior banker at Bear Stearns calls this “a stupid amount of leverage.”

The bear fund, which is less than a year old, was reportedly down 23% by the end of April. The situation looked so bad that its managers suspended redemptions, locking in investors. Because the fund was highly levered, it’s lenders began fearing that they might lose out if the fund collapsed. When Merrill, which is reportedly the fund’s biggest lender, made its move to seize collateral with plans to auction it off, it seems to have set off a chain reaction with other lenders.

Various schemes to rescue the fund seem not to have satisfied the lenders. The fund sold some of its trouble mortgage back securities to another Bear investment vehicle that the bank plans to sell to the public, raising some capital. It’s managers reportedly gained access to a $1.5 billion line of additional credit from Bear, and planned to take in an additional $500 million of investment equity. Blackstone was reportedly advising the fund on how to prevent a total collapse.

The fund’s managers—who are led by Ralph Cioffi—argued that a forced dissolution of the fund and an auction of its positions might lead to a systemic event or domino effect in the marketplace, damaging other market players.
“The bond market's most battered players - the hedge funds and trading desks specializing in mortgage-backed securities - now have to handle a total of $2 billion or more hitting a market that is still licking its wounds from the first burst of sub-prime woes,” the Post’s Boyd writes. “The sales are likely to force a serious re-pricing of billions of dollars worth of highly complex and often illiquid securities called collateralized debt obligations, or bonds made from other bonds. Held by both Wall Street firms and hedge funds, the CDOs stocked with sub-prime bonds have not collapsed in price alongside other sub-prime bonds. This will hurt returns at hedge funds and profits at Wall Street trading desks.”

It seems that the lenders to the Bear fund have decided that this risk is worth taking on. Or at least, that taking money off the table now is a safer bet than going forward with the Bear fund.

A 'Subprime' Fund Is on the Brink [Wall Street Journal]
Bad News Bear [New York Post]
Hedge Fund Sale [CNBC]

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Click: Another Bear Stearn's Story - Sub Prime Investments, Not Stocks