Titanium Research Info
TZ Minerals International Pty Ltd: Demand estimates for global titanium metal industry
Released : Thursday, June 14, 2007
Strong demand growth for milled products is forecast; however, an increasing over supply for titanium sponge is expected until 2011 according to a new report, The Global Titanium Metal Industry, from TZMI and EHK Technologies (EHKT).
Overall demand for titanium milled products was 92,800 tonnes in 2006, an increase of 10,400 tonnes over 2005. Titanium consumption in the global commercial aerospace sector was estimated to be 27,000 tonnes, including engines, of which over 70% relates to Boeing and Airbus airframes. A diverse set of markets make up the largest overall segment of the titanium industry, industrial applications. This segment accounted for 46,800 tonnes in 2006.
A key component of the Global Titanium Metal Industry report covers detailed demand estimates to 2015, during which period demand is forecast to grow at an average compound rate of 7.3%, while still showing some cyclical behaviour. Consistent with the situation in 2006, industrial uses should account for half the growth, retaining an estimated overall 51% share of the market.
On a regional basis, the major change is the substantial increase in Chinese milled product demand, to the extant that it is very close to that forecast for the US, whose market share declines in a similar fashion to Japan and Western Europe. During the period to 2015 the report estimates that there will initially be a sharp reduction in capacity utilisation from the peak level reached in 2006. This change will be felt across all producers, with Chinese performance being the most uncertain to forecast to avoid the accumulation of significant excess inventories.
The two major conclusions from the analysis, which are highly material to the price projections, included:
* The change in the milled product balance from a deficit in 2005 to a significant surplus peaking in 2011 and then progressively declining over the forecast period to 2015.
* A parallel reduction in sponge capacity utilisation from its 92% peak in 2006 to a low point in 2008, followed by a progressive recovery to at least 85% from 2013.
At year-end 2006, it is estimated that globally there were 1,193 million contained TiO2 units in identified ilmenite resources and 165,000 contained TiO2 units in identified rutile resources globally. In 2006, world supply of titanium minerals was 5.8 million TiO2 units, of which 93% was to the pigment industry, with only 4% reporting to the titanium metal sector. Seven major producers of titanium sponge accounted for over 93% of global production in 2006 of 125,700 tonnes.
TZMI, an independent consulting and publishing company established in 1994, specialising in the titanium minerals, zircon and TiO2 pigment industries has been closely involved with China for several years. EHKT, through its principal, Dr Edwin Kraft, has an extensive industrial background, having served in technology, production and commercial positions in several major corporations. He has worked on titanium and other advanced materials for over 35 years and regularly provides articles and reports for the International Titanium Association and materials related publications.
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Copyright 2007 M2 Communications Ltd.
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